March 29, 2024
Global Renewable News

Some Understanding of Global Warming
Volume 5, Issue 8

February 25, 2014

I don’t know where you live but I live in Toronto, Canada. As I write this article, the outside air temperature continues to plummet to well below zero Celsius for yet another week-long stretch. This brings me to the phenomena called Global Warming and the idiosyncratic relationship between warm and cold. People are rightfully confused about this entire deal.

In a recent New York Times1 article, the writer remarked that as U.S. President Obama was declaring that “climate change is a fact,” Atlanta was being hammered by a vicious ice and snow storm that literally stopped the city dead in its tracks. Temperatures were nose-diving in the northeast and Washington, D.C. hit minus 24 with snow, New York City minus 23, Chicago dropped to minus 27 and Minneapolis hit a bone-chilling minus 30 (all temperatures listed in degrees Celsius). Toronto felt minus 28 and these temps were downright balmy compared to lows in early January and late December.

This weather stoked the fuel for the climate change naysayers who immediately swung into action to mock the science-based facts. What they didn’t consider is the fact that Arctic warming is seriously harming the planet. The UK has been pummelled time and again by period after period of hard rain; Japan suffers under the weight of incredible snowfall amounts; the American southwest continues to bake and is hurting from debilitating drought; and, as witnessed in Atlanta, the iceman certainly cometh. On the flip-side, Alaska has been basking in unheard of warmth for much of the winter.

Science is claiming the changing weather is a result of a polar vortex which has a river called the jet stream as a boundary. When the vortex weakens, the jet stream, which blows from west to east across the Northern hemisphere, can precipitate zones of extreme heat or cold. This winter, the Arctic blasts have been relatively short when compared to previous years. According to Jennifer Francis, climate scientist at Rutgers University, this new take on our predicament is really stirring up the scientific community. If nothing else it explains why the extremes are becoming more evident.

Arctic warming, which is the first step in the process, is not a matter of controversy as direct correlations are indicating that the polar north is warming faster than the middle latitudes. The sea ice in the Arctic has destabilized a weather pattern that keeps frigid air trapped near the pole. The difference in air temperatures between Arctic and the mid-latitudes is partly what drives the polar jet stream. At a recent panel discussion,2 James Overland of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration showed that, based on current models, Arctic ice will be gone by the year 2060 and tragically, if warming is not arrested, sea ice could be history in less than a decade.

In a process referred to as albedo, ice reflects sunlight back into the atmosphere thereby keeping the warming rays at bay. Open water, however, absorbs the sun’s heat and stores it creating a feedback loop that interferes with the natural cooling ability of the ocean. Scientists debate whether or not this is the primary driver behind Arctic amplification. “The bottom line,” says Overland “is it’s changing like crazy.” The fly in the ointment, though, is one would expect the jet stream to weaken when the differences in atmospheric temperatures decrease and evidence shows that this is so.

Like water running down a mountain, a strong jet stream is more likely to run in a relatively straight line pushing back blockages the way a mountain stream rushes over rocks, states Ms. Francis. But a weaker jet stream is more likely to meander like a stream flowing across a plain taking the path of least resistance. Big waves in the jet stream form and are holding weather patterns in place for longer periods: as the stream lingers, the big peaks and troughs trap systems in place.3 This is why the UK has seen record rainfall over such a long stretch, Southern Ontario and Quebec have been shivering in the deep freeze since well before Christmas, and the U.S. Southwest continues to bake. I spoke with a good friend recently who lives in the higher elevations north of Phoenix, U.S.A. and she said all of her garden plants have been in flower for weeks. And she’s been able to enjoy normally migrating songbirds through the winter.

So far, the most perplexing phenomena is that winters have generally become so mild over the past 20 to 30 years that a blast of Arctic air such as that which is hitting us this year feels quite extraordinary. I guess this is the conundrum – cold-weather angst may influence how people perceive the larger issue. Experts studying human perception have found that our immediate gut reaction can influence our judgements on similar related questions. The answers are basic and totally understandable. For example, on a day that is perceived as hotter than normal, more people are likely to agree that global warming is indeed real. The inverse happens for perception of cold.

Scientists agree that amplification in the Arctic is a new trend and it may take years to come to grips with the global ramifications. Experts are hopeful, however, that it could help link a distant problem to what’s happening under our mid-latitude noses.

“People want to know why they’re suffering, and why the weather is so weird and why it’s different,” continues Francis. “I think part of the reason why this work has started to get some attention is because it is providing an explanation for why we’re seeing a tendency for some of these sorts of extreme events.”

The long and the short of it? Thermometers placed all over this planet are telling us an undeniable story. No matter how cold it has been getting in Toronto, Chicago, New York or Minneapolis, it’s a fact that the world itself is warming up.
 


1 Gillis, Justin. “Freezing Out the Bigger Picture.” New York Times International. (February 23, 2014): 13
2 Allen, Kate. “Arctic warming may be driving long winter.” Toronto Star. (February 16, 2014): A4
3 Ibid.

For more information

Terry Wildman

Terry Wildman
Senior Editor
terry@electricenergyonline.com
GlobalRenewableNews.com