Smart Grid Research Consortium: New Study Provides Solar PV Business Model Impacts For Utility Participants

The Smart Grid Research Consortium (SGRC) announced initiation of a new multi-client study to forecast and analyze business model impacts of residential solar PV over the next decade.   SGRC multi-client applications reduce the cost for individual utility participants by joint funding of common portions of the research and analysis framework development.   Business model analysis is conducted independently for each utility participant.

"US Residential solar PV installations increased 69 percent in the last year according to the most recent GTM and SEIA national market analysis. This translates to new PV output of about 1.8 GW from 400,000 new installations.  The steady improvement in economics of solar PV, including PV/battery systems promises to continue the industry's exponential growth, impacting nearly every electric utility" said Dr. Jerry Jackson, SGRC research director. 

"Minimizing negative utility business model impacts requires proactive strategies that recognize each individual utility's exposure to PV impacts ranging from net metering revenue loss to additional investments in voltage control to accommodate PV clustering along feeders."

Market penetration of new residential PV systems is modeled for each utility at the ZIP area level based on data from more than 7 million customers and 400,000 PV installations using MAISY Utility Customer Databases and Agent-Based Models. Optional feeder-level forecasts are also available. These resources have been applied for a variety of solar and other distributed energy companies including Geostellar , Sun Edison, Sungevity, Sharp, Toyota, Ingersoll Rand, United Technologies, Bloom Energy, Ice Energy, Aisen and many more.  

Each utility participating in the study will receive its own report and briefing.  Reports include a review of recent PV and battery market developments and a discussion of likely future developments based on comments from industry experts.  Analysis results include annual ZIP-detailed utility PV and PV/battery forecasts, PV output, revenue impacts,  financial impacts of alternative rate designs and potentials for utility control of PV/battery systems for demand response.  Annual forecasts will be provided for 10 years.  Business model analysis reflects each utility's hourly loads, PV hourly output, utility avoided costs, current utility rate structures, net metering and other utility, federal and state and utility incentives and programs and other factors that impact the utility business model. 

Early project subscription costs are in effect until January 15, 2016 beginning at  $7,000 for utilities with fewer than 100,000 residential meters with graduated cost depending on residential meter counts.   Subscription costs begin at $8,500 after January 15.  Study results will be provided to participating utilities beginning March 15.

Additional information on the study is available at http://www.smartgridresearchconsortium.org

About Smart Grid Research Consortium Solar Services

The Smart Grid Research Consortium (SGRC), began as a Texas A&M University research and service project in 2010 and transitioned to an independent consulting organization the following year.  SGRC Solar PV Forecasting Models and Forecasting Services reflect an integration of the Consortium's Smart Grid Investment Model (SGIM) financial analysis resources and Jackson Associates (JA) MAISY Utility Customer Databases and Agent-Based Models.   The SGIM has been applied for 20 electric utilities while MAISY modeling and forecasting analysis have been applied at more than 100 energy-related organizations including utilities, equipment manufacturers, state and federal regulatory agencies and other energy-related organizations.

Jackson Associates (JA) provides MAISY databases, agent-based models and analysis to electric utilities, ESCOS and retail electric providers, equipment manufacturers and suppliers, research organizations and government agencies.  MAISY Solar Market Databases and Solar PV Sales Leads provide market assessment, marketing campaign and sales resources for equipment manufacturers and suppliers and include coverage across the entire US.

JA solar and distributed energy clients include Geostellar , Sun Edison, Sungevity, Sharp, Toyota, Ingersoll Rand, United Technologies, Bloom Energy, Ice Energy, Aisen and many more.  See the MAISY Web site (www.maisy.com) for example agent-based model applications. 

The recent MAISY white paper, ""It's Time for Utilities to Plan for Disruptive Solar PV Impacts," available at www.maisy.com/utilitypv.pdf, describes reasons to expect continued exponential PV market growth.