Earlier this month, the Government of Türkiye previewed its COP31 action agenda, which featured zero waste and waste sector methane mitigation as its top priority. This announcement builds on the Reducing Methane from Organic Waste (ROW) Declaration from COP29, COP30's No Organic Waste Plan to Accelerate Solutions, and the Global Methane Pledge (GMP). These high-level commitments have helped to spur national-level momentum in the sector; according to the Global Methane Status Report, over 150 countries now include or acknowledge the waste sector in their Nationally Determined Contributions.
But commitments are nothing without action. Modeling suggests that the measures taken now will prove pivotal to the mitigation potential of the waste sector for decades to come. With the right initiatives, the solid waste sector has the potential to mitigate 8 million tonnes of methane per year by 2030, which can grow to 49 million tonnes of mitigation per year by 2050. This year, CATF is tracking progress in three areas, which we think will be key for staying on track to meet our GMP targets.
The No Organic Waste (NOW) Plan to accelerate solutions
The Plans to Accelerate Solutions were developed as part of COP30's Action Agenda, and are intended to be practical, time-bound roadmaps to implement pledges that the global community has made on climate. The NOW Plan is hosted by the Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC) and aims to cut one million tonnes of annual methane emissions from food and organic waste through large-scale prevention, recovery, and valorization measures. On its own, this goal is not new; it's similar to the goal of the Lowering Organic Waste Methane Initiative which launched at COP28. What is exciting about this plan is that it brings together a number of existing initiatives across regions and across different aspects of waste management, from upstream food waste prevention to downstream landfill measures. This umbrella did not exist previously, and with the CCAC as the host there is a clear mechanism for pulling these activities together.
Additionally, the Global Methane Hub committed $30 million USD to scale implementation of NOW. Access to finance is constantly a barrier we face in waste sector work, so this commitment has the ability to unlock progress and attract further funding.
Use of satellites and remote sensing in policy
Satellite and remote sensing technologies are increasingly enabling transparency and visibility into methane emissions from landfills and dumpsites. According to Carbon Mapper, landfill super emitters - disposal sites with persistent and large point sources of emissions - can be found all over the world and emit over 6.1 million tons of methane per year. In addition to identifying high emitting facilities, these technologies can also help us craft effective mitigation plans. By identifying the source of the methane plume, satellite observations can put data into the hands of operators and local governments who are best positioned to act. This strategy has been shown to be effective in cutting landfill methane emissions in the states of California and Pennsylvania in the United States.
In the fossil fuel sector, innovative policies and regulations are already putting remote sensing data to work for leak detection and repair and measurement-informed inventories. One example is California's Amendments to the Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards for Crude Oil and Natural Gas Facilities, whichallows the local regulator to notify operators of satellite monitoring data, after which the operator has five days to inspect the emitting facility; repair timelines are then set based on methane concentration of the leak. This data is also being used to evaluate policy. A recent analysis by EDF used MethaneSAT data to compare the efficacy of emissions controls on the New Mexico and Texas sides of the Permian Basin, and found that operators on the New Mexico side emit less than half the amount of methane.
Policy makers in the waste sector are slowly beginning to replicate these programs. The State of Colorado adopted a rule which includes a remote monitoring provision to allow third parties to submit observations of landfill emissions to the state, which will increase transparency of emissions from landfills in the State. Further, Brazil announced the launch of a process to develop an initiative to detect and mitigate methane emissions from the country's waste sector using cutting-edge satellite and remote sensing technologies, with support from CATF and Carbon Mapper.
Artificial intelligence (AI) to reduce food waste
AI is being used to prevent upstream food loss and waste, and the associated methane emissions when this waste decays in landfills. A common use of AI in the sector is in grocery stores, restaurants, and commercial kitchens to analyze food waste patterns and make more informed purchasing and inventory decisions. In addition to the environmental and climate benefits of reduced food waste, adopters of AI systems also see labor efficiency and cost savings. Researchers are now trying to bring this technology into households - by analyzing trends in what ends up in your bin, as well as providing real-time updates on expiration dates and food spoilage in your fridge.
AI is also helping to optimize food waste diversion services. Service providers that use this technology can help waste generators track their diversion efforts and emission mitigation. Meanwhile, companies that use food waste as feedstock for animal feed or energy generation have real time data on feedstock type and delivery timing to plan their operations.
What's next?
Continued progress in these areas will bring us closer to realizing the waste sector's full mitigation potential, but still more gaps remain. In particular, more countries need to adopt policies that will drive down emissions, provide a pathway towards commitments in NDCs, and scale the use of methane reducing technologies for swift implementation. CATF will continue to track and support progress across all of these fronts. To learn more about our work in the waste sector, explore our resources here.
