Methane emissions from the waste sector have historically occupied a blind spot in climate policy despite its significant and growing impact on climate change. While over 150 countries now include or acknowledge the waste sector in their national climate plans, only a small number have methane-specific targets, dedicated financing, or enforceable implementation strategies to reduce emissions at scale. Methane is generated gradually over many years at landfills and dumpsites, meaning that policy decisions deferred this decade effectively lock in emissions well into the 2040s and 2050s. This policy brief challenges three common myths that continue to shape waste policymaking and governance and, in doing so, slow progress on methane mitigation.
Myth: Methane emissions from the waste sector are a minor issue compared to energy and agriculture.
This perception persists in part because the waste sector accounts for roughly 20% of global anthropogenic methane emissions, less than energy or agriculture, reinforcing the view that waste is not a priority sector for mitigation. Furthermore, because methane from landfills and dumpsites is released gradually, the benefits of reducing it take longer to show, weakening the political will for early action. In many low- and middle-income countries, this is compounded by limited public budgets and immediate pressures to prioritize other areas such as energy and food security.
Fact: Methane emissions from the waste sector are rising rapidly and are projected to grow sharply this decade.
Current trends show that global methane emissions from the waste sector are increasing rapidly with population and economic growth. In 2022, greenhouse gas emissions from solid waste management were estimated at approximately 1.28 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e), with methane accounting for 90% of the total. Looking ahead, global waste generation is projected to grow from 2.56 billion tonnes in 2022 to 3.86 billion metric tons by 2050 a 50% increase (see Figure 1). Much of the growth in waste generation will take place in low- and lower-middle-income countries, placing increasing strain on solid waste management systems. Where systems fail to keep pace, large amounts of organic waste will accumulate in landfills and dumpsites, generating methane.
In this decade alone, if no additional actions are taken, methane emissions from the waste sector are expected to increase by roughly 10 million metric tons (Mt)/year, roughly equal to increases in the agriculture sector (11 MT/year) and outpacing projected changes in the fossil fuels sector (approximate decrease of 4 Mt/year). By 2050, increases in waste sector emissions (40 MT/year), greatly exceed those in the fossil fuel (11 MT/year), and agriculture sectors (25 MT/year).
