HIGHLIGHTS
- OVER THE COMING YEAR, U.S. EIA PROJECTS NEW UTILITY-SCALE SOLAR, WIND, AND BATTERY STORAGE CAPACITY TO GROW BY MORE THAN 80-GW
- AS NUCLEAR AND FOSSIL FUEL CAPACITY FALLS BY 5-GW
- ELECTRICAL GENERATION BY RENEWABLES WAS UP BY NEARLY 11% IN FIRST TWO MONTHS OF 2026
New data recently released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), and reviewed by the SUN DAY Campaign, projects utility-scale solar, wind, and battery storage will add more than 80 gigawatts (GW) of new generating capacity in the U.S. by February 28, 2027 while total fossil fuel and nuclear power capacity will fall by almost 5-GW. [1]
Renewable energy's share of utility-scale generating capacity to grow from 33.4% to 36.6%:
As of March 1, 2026, renewable energy's share of total U.S. utility-scale (i.e., >1-megawatt (MW)) generating capacity was 33.4%. EIA projects this to grow to 36.6% by February 28, 2027. Solar will add 42,628.6-MW thereby expanding its share from 12.7% to 15.5% while wind will grow by 14,507.4-MW, increasing from 13.1% to 13.6%. This includes 4,155.0-MW of new offshore wind capacity. The mix of other renewables (i.e., hydropower, biomass, and geothermal) will add 316.7-MW.
The combined capacity growth of all renewable energy sources for the 12-month period (57,452.7-MW) is almost 75% greater than that added during the previous 12 months (32,988.9-MW).
Meanwhile, EIA projects no new generating capacity by nuclear power and a net decline of 4,903.2-MW in fossil fuel capacity. [2]
With the inclusion of new small-scale solar, renewables' capacity will surpass natural gas:
EIA does not provide a forecast for new capacity additions by small-scale solar (e.g., rooftop solar). [3] However, it does report that as of the end of February, small-scale solar capacity totaled 60.197.9-MW with over 10% (i.e., 6,068.9-MW) of that coming on-line during the prior year's time. [4]
If small-scale solar adds a comparable amount by March 1, 2027 (e.g., 6,000-MW), it will bring renewable energy's share of installed capacity up to 39.7%. Solar power's share alone (19.7%) will be almost one-fifth of total U.S. capacity.
By comparison, natural gas' share of generating capacity will drop from 40.0% to 38.3%.
Battery energy storage is projected to increase by over 50%:
For the forecast period, EIA expects utility-scale battery energy storage to surge from 44,630.7-MW to 67,549.6-MW - an increase of 51.4%.
Thus, the combination of renewable energy sources (including estimated small-scale solar) and battery energy storage will provide approximately 86,370-MW of new clean capacity.
Actual generation by renewables in the first two months of 2026 was up by over 10%:
Not surprisingly, the rapid expansion of renewables' generating capacity has been accompanied by comparable growth in actual generation.
During January and February, electrical output by the mix of renewables increased by 10.8% and provided 26.0% of total generation - up from 23.6% during the same two-month period in 2025. The rate of growth by renewables was triple that of all energy sources combined (3.6%)
The growth was led by surges of 23.2% in utility-scale solar and a 22.9% in hydropower plus 11.4% growth in estimated small-scale solar. Electrical production by wind and geothermal also grew by 1.4% and 1.5% respectively. [5]
Once again, the electricity generated by the mix of solar and wind was greater than that provided by either coal or nuclear power. [6]
"Notwithstanding all of the policy obstacles thrown up by the Trump Administration during the last year, renewables raced ahead in 2025," noted the SUN DAY Campaign's executive director Ken Bossong. "Now they are poised to really press the pedal to the metal in 2026 and beyond."
Source:
EIA released its latest "Electric Power Monthly" report on April 23, 2026. The full report can be found at: https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly
For the data cited in this release, see:
Table ES1.A ("Total Electric Power Industry Summary Statistics, 2026 and 2025");
Table ES1.B ("Total Electric Power Industry Summary Statistics, Year-to-Date 2026 and 2025");
Table 1.1.A ("Net Generation from Renewable Sources");
Table 6.1 ("Electric Generating Summer Capacity Changes (MW), January 2026 to February 2026");
Table 6.1.A ("Estimated Net Summer Solar Photovoltaic Capacity from Utility and Small-Scale Facilities"); and
Table 6.07.C ("Usage Factors for Utility-Scale Storage Generators").
Notes:
[1] EIA presents its capacity data as "summer capacity" defined as the maximum output that generating equipment can supply to system load at the time of summer peak demand. See Table 6.1.
[2] Capacity factors for fossil fuels and nuclear power are generally higher than for solar and wind. For 2025, EIA reported capacity factors of 48.7%, 58.4%, and 91.0% for coal, natural gas, and nuclear power respectively. By comparison, the capacity factors for wind and utility-scale PV were 34.2% and 24.4% respectively. See Tables 6.07.A and 6.07.B. Capacity factors for small-scale solar systems (10%-25%.) are usually lower than for utility-scale solar.
[3] In its "Electric Power Monthly" report, EIA refers to small-scale or distributed solar as "Estimated Small Scale Solar Photovoltaic." Unless otherwise indicated, all calculations presented in this release include electrical generation by small-scale solar which EIA estimates to have totaled 12,484 gigawatt-hours (GWh) in January-February 2026. Utility-scale solar totaled 39,2905-GWh for the same period.
[4] Between March 1, 2025 and February 28, 2026, estimated small-scale solar accounted for 6,068.9-MW in new capacity additions. The SUN DAY Campaign is therefore assuming that about 6,000-MW in new small-scale solar capacity will be added during the ensuing 12 months.
[5] In January-February 2026, wind produced 84,141-GWh (11.1%) of total U.S. electrical generation while utility-scale and small-scale solar combined produced 51,775-GWh (6.9%), hydropower produced 50,371-GWh (6.7%), biomass produced 7,630-GWh (1.0%), and geothermal produced 2,680-GWh (0.36%).
[6] In January-February 2026, the mix of wind and solar, including small-scale solar, produced 135,915-GWh while nuclear power generated 135,635-GWh and coal provided 128,361-GWh.
The SUN DAY Campaign is a non-profit research and educational organization founded in 1992 to support a rapid transition to 100% reliance on sustainable energy technologies as a cost-effective alternative to nuclear power and fossil fuels and as a solution to climate change.
