Electrification is central to meeting the European Union's goals on energy security, competitiveness, affordability, and emissions reductions. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has highlighted the risks of over-dependence on imported fuels and concentrated supply routes, making the case for electrification even stronger.
In the EU, around 70% of electricity generation is already supplied from domestic, low-emissions sources. And yet end-users (industry, buildings and transport sectors), source less than one quarter of their energy consumption from electricity. Today, around two-thirds of end-use energy consumption relies on fossil fuels, of which the EU imports more than 80%.
This commentary is the first in a series examining the case for electrification in the EU, identifying cost competitiveness and areas where targeted policies could catalyse change.
Fuel price ratios determine electrification competitiveness
To make electrification cost-competitive, electricity prices need to fall below a threshold ratio relative to the price of fossil fuels. Because most electrification options are several times more efficient than conventional alternatives, they can be cheaper to operate than conventional fuel-based technologies even when electricity costs more per unit of energy than the fuel they replace - i.e. a ratio greater than one.
EU countries today face very different price ratios. These differences are driven by historical choices in energy system design, energy taxation, and natural resources. They differ not only between countries, but also within them, as subsidies, taxes, and grid connection fees can vary substantially between industrial and household consumers. Averaging across these users, countries with lower price ratios typically see higher rates of electrification and per capita electricity demand.
