INTERNATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY AGENCY
Energy Planning as Investment Driver for Global Grids Enhancement

The global conversation on renewable energy is changing. The debate regarding cost-competitiveness is largely settled, shifting the challenge to the complexity of execution. Nowhere is this more acute than in the power sector, where grids have emerged as the primary physical bottleneck to achieving the global energy goals of tripling renewables capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030.

To meet these goals, it is crucial to expand and modernise grid infrastructure, requiring USD 30 trillion of accumulative investment in renewable power by 2030, with up to USD 912 billion needed annually for grids and flexibility. Yet, despite significant global liquidity, capital flows are not scaling at the required pace.

Although investment opportunities exist in emerging markets and developing economies, perceived risks remain a key barrier to investment, particularly from private sources. Departing from Brazil's experience in incorporating investment-ready strategies into its long-term energy planning which led to reduced investment risks and more private capital in renewables, the Global Coalition for Energy Planning (GCEP) was established in 2025.

Aiming to resolve the investment gap by strengthening country-owned planning ecosystems, GCEP with IRENA as Secretariat helps governments and their partners provide the clarity, predictability, and confidence that investors need

Given the urgency to meet the 2030 energy goals, the topic of turning planning into investment was highlighted during IRENA's 16th Assembly in January. A dedicated high-level roundtable session was held to discuss the Coalition's 2026 work plan and evaluate how aligned regulatory and planning frameworks can attract the capital needed to secure a cost-effective energy transition.

These discussions took place alongside a presentation of a relevant paper by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Setting the scene of the roundtable, the paper examines the institutional, regulatory, and financial conditions required to scale grid investment, particularly in emerging markets and developing economies.

The Components of Investment-Ready Energy Plans

One of the questions posed during the roundtable was about making sure national energy planning serve as a foundation to create project pipelines. To unlock the trillions required for infrastructure enhancement, national energy planning must evolve from a static mapping exercise into a dynamic risk-mitigation tool. Experts at the roundtable identified three specific shifts required to make plans investment-ready:

1. A recurring theme from the finance community was that capital invests in specific coordinates. Energy plans must thus move beyond gigawatt goals to spatial mapping and sequenced permitting visibility. Without clarity on where the grid will expand and when rights-of-way will be secured, the risk premium remains high.
2. Interventions from development banks highlighted that in many emerging markets and developing economies, currency risk and utility financial health are the binding constraints. A credible national plan must therefore shift financing structure in planning assumptions to local currency, therefore integrating the financial reality on the ground into the plan.
3. Participants emphasised that a plan is only as durable as the institutions behind it. This means that regulatory predictability must move beyond short-term governance cycle, especially when it comes to revenue models for flexibility and storage. When planning provides certain predictability that survives political cycles, it provides the stability necessary for long-term infrastructure capital.

From Diagnosis to Action: The GCEP Agenda

To support member states in making these shifts and bridging the gap between the physical reality of the grid and the financial requirements of the market, GCEP is advancing a targeted agenda for 2026, as follows:

• Defining investment-readiness: IRENA as the Coalition's Secretariat is working to establish a shared operational understanding of the data transparency and governance standards required to make a national plan trusted by Ministries of Finance and investors.

• Institutionalising dialogue: GCEP is committed to implement the Finance-in-the-Room' protocols, ensuring that financial institutions are consulted during the design phase of energy plans, rather than only upon their finalisation.

• Codifying best practices: working with GCEP members, GCEP will be compiling a curated library of proven models from independent transmission projects to successful auction frameworks where planning signals have effectively resulted in final investment decisions.

The consensus during the roundtable was clear: there is a gap between national ambition and bankable projects. In a nutshell, the era of the technical master plan is over. The map of a future system must now be transformed into a business plan. If a national energy plan does not lead to final investment decision, countries must accept that renewable energy targets will remain a fiction' for the foreseeable future.